Corporate buyers of SAF certificates — not airlines, not regulators — may become a decisive demand lever for the nascent PtL supply chain. A study released in mid-October 2026 by IATA, Airbus and Accenture puts the addressable volume at 1.0–1.9 Mt/year by 2030, against a 2024 baseline of roughly 323 kt: a potential six-fold increase that would materially reduce the financing risk for projects such as ETFuels’ 70 kt/year methanol-to-jet plant at Immingham.
1.9 Mt/yr
High-case corporate SAF certificate demand by 2030 (IATA/Airbus/Accenture)
323 kt
Corporate SAF certificates purchased in 2024
1.0 Mt/yr
Low-case corporate SAF certificate demand by 2030
70 kt/yr
Planned PtL e-SAF output, ETFuels Project Kings Road Humber
- Corporate demand could outpace regulatory baseline
The IATA/Airbus/Accenture study, published 15 October 2026, projects corporate SAF certificate purchases of 1.0–1.9 Mt/year by 2030 versus ~323 kt in 2024. At the high end, voluntary corporate offtake would represent a substantial share of the ReFuelEU blending volumes required of EU fuel suppliers in the same year. - PtL projects need exactly this kind of long-term signal
Q8Aviation’s long-term supply agreement with ETFuels’ Project Kings Road Humber — a planned 70 kt/year methanol-to-jet facility at Immingham, UK — illustrates how creditworthy offtake contracts unlock project finance for capital-intensive PtL plants. A corporate certificate market at 1–2 Mt/year would provide similar bankability signals to developers across Europe. - ReFuelEU mandates remain the hard regulatory floor
Under ReFuelEU Aviation, fuel suppliers must blend increasing shares of SAF, with dedicated RFNBO sub-mandates scaling toward 2030 and beyond. The European Commission confirmed in October 2026 that its H2 2027 review will not lower these mandates, preserving the compliance floor that makes voluntary corporate purchases additive rather than substitutive. - RED III RFNBO targets face post-2030 uncertainty
While near-term mandates appear secure, reporting from power-to-x.swiss (21 October 2026) notes that RED IV may drop binding RFNBO targets after 2030 — a policy risk that compliance directors modelling 2031–2035 electrolyser and feedstock contracts must factor into their sensitivity analysis. - Scale gap between demand forecasts and current supply remains stark
A six-fold rise in corporate certificate demand by 2030 assumes supply keeps pace; today’s global SAF production capacity is nowhere near 1.9 Mt/year of PtL output alone. The production bottleneck — green hydrogen availability, CO₂ sourcing, Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-to-jet conversion capacity — remains the binding constraint, not demand appetite.
Bottom Line
The IATA/Airbus/Accenture projection reframes corporate SAF certificates as a genuine demand-side driver, not a niche voluntary gesture. For compliance directors, the near-term message is straightforward: ReFuelEU mandates are locked through the 2027 review, RFNBO sub-targets are intact to 2030, and voluntary corporate demand could add up to 1.9 Mt/year on top. The strategic risk sits beyond 2030, where RED IV may remove binding RFNBO obligations — introducing exactly the policy uncertainty that makes locking in long-term offtake agreements, like the Q8Aviation/ETFuels deal, a rational hedge for both producers and buyers today.
Sources
- Corporate SAF demand could reach 1.9 million tonnes by 2030
- E-fuels after 2030: what RED IV, ETS and ReFuelEU mean for Switzerland
- ReFuelEU Aviation · blend trajectory & scope
Featured image via Unsplash.
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