Carbon capture’s headline numbers look encouraging — but the IEA’s August 2026 assessment makes plain that the engineering pipeline is outpacing the construction pipeline, with the bulk of potential capacity still waiting on final investment decisions and many facilities sliding to 2035 or beyond.
>10%
Rise in operational + under-construction capture capacity (IEA 2026)
+25%
Year-on-year increase in CO2 storage capacity
~425 Mt/yr
Total potential CCUS capture capacity in the pipeline
2035
Horizon to which many delayed projects have slipped
- Capacity metrics beat expectations — for now
The IEA’s 2026 CCUS update recorded operational and under-construction capture capacity growing by more than 10% year-on-year, while storage capacity expanded by 25%. Both figures outperform the trajectory implied by most 2023-vintage net-zero scenarios, suggesting that engineering and permitting pipelines are maturing faster than critics predicted. - A 425 Mt/yr ceiling with a project-slippage problem
Aggregated across all announced, sanctioned and speculative projects, total potential capture capacity sits at roughly 425 Mt/yr — a figure that sounds large until you note that many of those projects have deferred commissioning to 2035 or later, meaning the near-term contribution to decarbonisation remains constrained by execution risk rather than technology readiness. - CO2 utilisation: the process engineering opportunity
Captured CO2 is increasingly viewed not only as waste to be sequestered but as a feedstock for Power-to-Liquid e-fuels, e-methanol and synthetic aviation fuel — directly linking CCUS scale-up to the broader synthetic-fuels supply chain. Process engineers are integrating direct air capture and point-source capture units with electrolysis trains to form closed-loop carbon cycles, though costs remain elevated and plant integration complexity is high. - Digital tools tightening plant performance
Across Power-to-Liquid facilities that rely on captured CO2 as a carbon source, operators are deploying AI-based process control and digital twins to optimise solvent regeneration duty, compressor scheduling and CO2 purity — squeezing efficiency out of systems where energy costs dominate the economics. Predictive maintenance algorithms are also being applied to amine absorbers and cryogenic separation units to reduce unplanned downtime. - What engineers should watch in the delay cycle
The 2035 slippage pattern reflects recurring bottlenecks: CO2 transport and injection infrastructure lagging behind capture-unit build-out, permitting timelines for offshore storage sites, and offtake uncertainty that stalls final investment decisions. For synthetic-fuels developers banking on point-source CO2 supply, these delays are a feedstock-security risk that demands long-term supply agreements or on-site capture capacity as a hedge.
Bottom Line
The IEA’s 2026 data confirm that CCUS is scaling — measurably and faster than many assumed — but the gap between potential capacity (425 Mt/yr) and near-term deliverable capacity is wide, and the 2035 slippage of many projects is a concrete risk for the synthetic-fuels and CO2-utilisation industries that depend on reliable, affordable captured carbon as a feedstock. The engineering work is advancing; the project-finance and infrastructure work has not kept pace.
Sources
Featured image via Unsplash.
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