The sustainable aviation fuel industry’s sharp growth trajectory—forecast to expand from USD 2.37 billion in 2026 to USD 10.27 billion by 2032—is placing unprecedented demand on green hydrogen production as a critical feedstock for Power-to-Liquid e-fuel pathways. Electrolysis capacity planning, plant-scale engineering, and hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure are now moving to the forefront of SAF project feasibility studies, particularly as airlines and regulators push for faster decarbonisation under ReFuelEU Aviation mandates.
$2.37B
Global SAF market 2026
$10.27B
Forecast SAF market 2032
2030
Key ReFuelEU milestone year
54 players
Key firms tracked in SAF forecast
- SAF market expansion sets hydrogen feedstock race in motion
The global sustainable aviation fuel market is projected to grow from USD 2.37 billion in 2026 to USD 10.27 billion by 2032, driving demand for green hydrogen as a core feedstock in Power-to-Liquid e-fuel synthesis. Major players including Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, and Neste are ramping up procurement strategies to secure electrolyser capacity and renewable power offtake agreements. - Electrolyser scale-up becoming critical path for PtL projects
Power-to-Liquid plants under development are increasingly designed around multi-hundred-megawatt electrolyser arrays to produce the hydrogen volumes required for Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-to-jet pathways. Process engineering teams are integrating AI-based predictive maintenance and digital twin simulations to optimise electrolyser stack performance and minimise downtime during the critical ramp-up phase. - Airbus highlights Canadian hydrogen infrastructure gap
An Airbus study released in July 2026 on sustainable aviation fuel’s economic potential in Canada underscores the need for accelerated green hydrogen pipeline build-out and electrolyser manufacturing capacity to meet domestic and export SAF ambitions. The study points to renewable power availability and hydrogen transport infrastructure as key enablers for large-scale PtL deployment. - IATA warns production still lags 2030 targets despite uptick
The International Air Transport Association cautioned in July that although SAF production forecasts for 2026 show improvement, the industry remains far behind the trajectory needed to meet 2030 blending mandates under ReFuelEU Aviation and similar regulations. Green hydrogen supply bottlenecks are cited as a significant constraint on scaling Power-to-Liquid capacity. - BloombergNEF signals SAF price stabilisation ahead
BloombergNEF’s latest outlook suggests sustainable aviation fuel prices may level off as production scales and feedstock costs—including green hydrogen—decline through learning curves and increased electrolyser deployment. The analysis highlights that hydrogen production costs remain a critical variable in determining whether e-SAF can achieve price parity with conventional jet fuel by the early 2030s.
Bottom Line
Green hydrogen is transitioning from a niche decarbonisation concept to a central pillar of the sustainable aviation fuel supply chain, with electrolyser capacity planning, process optimisation, and hydrogen transport infrastructure now defining the critical path for Power-to-Liquid project economics. As SAF demand surges toward a projected USD 10.27 billion market by 2032, the race is on to scale electrolysis capacity, secure renewable power, and deploy the pipeline networks that will link hydrogen production hubs to emerging e-fuel refineries across North America and Europe.
Sources
- Airbus unveils study on the potential of sustainable aviation fuel to support economic growth and accelerate Canada’s climate goals
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market – Global Forecast 2026-2032
- IATA warns SAF growth remains too slow despite higher production forecast for 2026
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel Price Outlook: Leveling Off
Featured image via Unsplash.
